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Economix
G.D.P. Estimate for First Quarter Slides

And the year started out so very hopeful.
When 2011 began, Macroeconomic Advisers, a forecasting company, expected that America’s economic output would shape up to rise at a 4.1 percent annual rate in the first quarter, the highest pace in over a year.

But economic reports coming in over the ( Read more... )

The following chart has now been updated through May, 2010

This chart clearly shows that despite very strong upticks in the Conference Board's "Leading Economic Index," or "LEI," the actual Coincident Index,  which is meant to closely reflect real-time economic conditions, and which normally trails the Leading Economic Index by a quarter or few, ( Read more... )

Time For A Poll, Ladies & Gents

But first, today's releases.

Economic Indicators from Econoday.com
Released on 5/20/2010 10:00:00 AM For Apr, 2010   PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual Leading Indicators - M/M change1.4 %0.1 %0.1 % to 0.7 %-0.1 % ( Read more... )

Let's see how well I paraphrase all these talking heads of the past few years --

Late 2007:
Recession, if there is one, will be short & shallow.
It will end by Spring! A one quarter "recession," at worst.

Spring 2008:
The economy will rebound strongly in the second half.
We haven't even had one quarter of negative growth. Stocks are cheap!

( Read more... )

Clearly, even the experts are in disagreement ( Read more... )